Pimco's Gross Calls US Economy 'Supernova' on Path to Extinction

Bill Gross, the Pimco bond guru, said on Thursday a heavy reliance on credit has put the U.S. economy on a trajectory toward extinction, and he warned of an investor exodus from financial markets.

The level of credit needed to spur economic growth has grown five-fold since the 1980s, said Gross, who is a founder and co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co.

He likened the need for more and more government stimulus to produce ever-diminishing rates of growth to Japan's experience over the past decade.

Using a supernova as a metaphor for the U.S. financial system, Gross said the universe is expanding so rapidly now that in the far future it will end in a "big freeze." Dependence on credit for growth will produce similar results, he said.

"Our current monetary system seems to require perpetual expansion to maintain its existence," Gross said in a Pimco investment outlook commentary for February posted on the firm's website. "The advancing entropy in the physical universe may in fact portend a similar decline of 'energy' and 'heat' within the credit markets."

Gross, who runs the $285 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond fund, said a breakdown in credit markets will likely spur inflation, something he has warned against in previous letters. Pimco, based in Newport Beach, California, had $2 trillion in assets as of Dec. 31.

He again recommended inflation-protected Treasuries, gold and other commodities, and recommended investing in countries with less debt such as Australia, Brazil, Mexico and Canada, and in world equities with healthy cash flows.

U.S. government, corporate, household and personal debt is now $56 trillion, a monster that needs ever increasing amounts of fuel, Gross said, calling it a "supernova star that expands and expands, yet, in the process begins to consume itself."

Gross said in the 1980s it took $4 of new credit to generate $1 of real gross domestic product, while over the past decade it took $10, and since 2006, it has taken $20 to produce the same result.

The end of credit markets will begin, said Gross, when assets offer too much risk and too little return, causing an investor exodus into alternatives such as cash or real assets.

Thoughts for May 4 - May 8, 2008

Bernanke/Politicians can’t help because they CAN’T Relate to the Problem

Thoughts that are agreed upon by the majority of Americans (which is my opinion)

Have we, the middle class, lost our minds? How many times are we going to look to the “top brass” to fix our problems? It is almost like the mindless junior high school student looking to the guidance counselor for advice. The guidance counselor has never faced this type of situation before that they are being asked about. So, the best answer given is taken from the closest case they have/or haven’t been involved in over the last 5 – 100 years.

Are you saying that we should look to the Depression of the 1930’s or the housing slumps at different times in the 70’s, 80’s, or 90’s to maybe figure out where we are headed today? Please, let’s look at the current mess and try to form a plan now for the future. By the time you study the past problems to look for an answer, we are deeper in our current debacle and on the brink of the next one.

The current Presidential hopefuls will tell us what we want to hear to get elected. That’s it! You are not actually gullible enough to think that any of these people can “conquer” the mortgage crisis or the war in Iraq or high gas prices or outrageous health care costs. The mortgage mess will work itself out over the next 3 – 5 years. Then we will be in a 5 – 10 year period of flat lining. It doesn’t take a genius to see this. The war in Iraq can not be solved by pulling troops out within 60 days from when a Democrat gets in office or if we stay for 100 years if a Republican gets in office. This is a problem that America has and can not fix. We have to learn how to live with it and educate our “allies” to do the same. This is an issue that will always keep us on the defense (remember, a strong defense is the best offense). High gas prices and high health insurance costs are the greed of American corporations. But hey, that’s our free enterprise system at work. How about that!

The only difference I see in any of the candidates, quite frankly, is that the Democratic male is the only one that has many Americans excited about the process. He is giving the message of hope. However, it is a bit naïve to think you can make a dent in the maze of red tape in Washington. And, the other two are the same “old school “ types that will make a good case with their rhetoric but will undoubtedly fall short of answers to America’s needs.

Yes, the Fed and many of our “wonderful” politicians want to help. But, do you think they actually go to sleep each night wondering how they are going to juggle paying the utility bills or the health insurance payment? Of course not! Most of these people are very wealthy and sleep just fine at night. Yes, they would love to come up with an answer that will help the masses but don’t believe for a minute that they lose sleep over it.

The large majority of our decision makers are multi-millionaires. And (of course this comment is for another column), if you look at how many of these men/woman came into this kind of wealth, you will question the ethics of a good percentage of our leaders. Of course there is a reason that a certain female in a position of power turned $1,000.00 in the futures market into $100,000.00 within a day. Or, the former City Council President in New Orleans who was one of the few that got caught taking bribes and is now in prison. And, so recently, the smug prick (former disgraced Governor) that is currently known as the “A-Hole of New York”. The list goes on and on. Okay, I will mention former Representative Duke Cunningham ® of California and former Governor Don Siegelman (D) of Alabama. The list is endless.

The mortgage crisis has got to be policed on a local level. Did you know that there are still countless cases of fraud happening right now? There are still phony applications with bogus information being submitted. NO. That hasn’t stopped. Let’s not be so naïve. Applications have phony bank account information, phony pay stubs, phony W-2 forms, phony verifications of employment, unethical brokers making large sums of money and all of this will contribute to prolonging our “mortgage mess” we are all upset over. Did you know that you can buy the above online?

And, the lenders out there are so blindsided by the increasing amount of foreclosures that they (for the most part) are not helping the delinquent (yet not in foreclosure yet) home owners who are 30 or 60 days down. The average lender will not even begin to discuss options until a home owner is in foreclosure. By that time, most home owners are so traumatized that they are unwilling to take the stress and will, most likely, walk away. Many lenders are like sellers from a year ago. They won’t budge on the Short Sale price because they want to sell at the appraised value in the neighborhood. C’mon lenders, let’s wake up and realize that you are no longer in a position to bargain. It is now time to take your lumps too.

Since the state of our country is “fragile”, can we really let a preacher stir up so much outrage with his words of hate. Of course, it is a free country with free speech. I guess you could say that the media is mainly to blame. They have made him into a celebrity by glorifying his filth. Of course, the media (these days) will do anything for headlines. Did you ever think about why you hear mainly bad, negative news on the tube/in the papers/on the net/ etc.? That is what sells. We are a nation that likes to hear outrageous, negative information. It makes us feel better about our own lives.